The Implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War for Political and Economic Stability in North Africa

Abstract

This study examines the repercussions of the Russo-Ukrainian war for political and economic stability in North Africa, focusing on Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia between February 2022 and the end of 2023. It hypothesizes that the war’s impact has been asymmetrical, shaped by each country’s dependence on imported grain and energy, available fiscal space, and political and security relations with Russia and the European Union. The study employs a comparative case-study design, supported by historical analysis, content analysis, and secondary data from international institutions. It finds that the war transmitted a compound external shock to North Africa through food, energy, and fertilizer prices; supply-chain disruption; and higher financing and subsidy costs. Net food and energy importers faced the greatest inflationary and fiscal pressure, whereas Algeria and Libya benefited relatively from higher hydrocarbon revenues, although this did not eliminate food-import dependence or inflation risks. The findings also show that the relative diplomatic neutrality adopted by some states was not purely ideological; it functioned as an instrument for balancing security and economic interests. The study proposes an applied policy package based on grain-supplier diversification, strategic reserves, targeted social protection, climate-smart agriculture, and regional energy interconnection. Its practical contribution lies in offering differentiated policy responses according to each state’s exposure rather than treating North Africa as a homogeneous unit.