Ethiopian-(Israeli) relations and their impact on the Nile Basin balance: A study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64184/ajlps.V3.I2.Y2026.758-780.346Keywords:
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis, (Israel), Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, Nile Basin.Abstract
The interactions between Ethiopia and Israel are a significant factor in reshaping the balance of power in the Nile Basin, particularly in light of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis. This crisis has transformed from a technical issue into a sensitive matter of sovereignty, intertwining international law, geography, and politics. A historical review of the agreements governing the river, from the 1902 understandings and the arrangements of 1929 and 1959 to the Entebbe Agreement of 2010, reveals a gradual shift from a system based on acquired privileges to a changing environment characterized by competing notions of unilateral sovereignty and the redistribution of resources. Within this context, the Nile's vital importance to Egypt and Sudan becomes evident, contrasted with Ethiopia's desire to transform this water resource into a developmental and strategic tool to bolster its regional standing. Politically, the dam crisis has reshaped the patterns of interaction among the Nile Basin countries, employing tools of pressure and multi-level negotiation while highlighting the limitations of traditional approaches, whether through African mediation or international engagement. This is due to the divergent frameworks between historical rights and the principle of equitable use. The presence of international actors, including the United States, has been geared more towards managing the crisis than resolving it, maintaining a fragile balance without a final settlement. Ethiopian-Israeli relations have acquired strategic significance, representing an extension of Israel's influence in the Horn of Africa since the 1950s. This influence is manifested through support for Ethiopia's technical and security capabilities in the dam project, thus strengthening its negotiating position. Egypt, on the other hand, views this rapprochement as a threat to regional stability. Consequently, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis has become a model reflecting broader shifts in the nature of resource conflicts, where water is no longer merely a natural element but a strategic tool for reproducing power and redefining regional balances.
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