International and Regional Dimensions of the Azerbaijani-Armenian Conflict: A Case Study of the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (2020 – 2026)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64184/ajlps.V2.I4.Y2025.p.1157/1173Keywords:
Nagorno-Karabakh; Regional Dimensions; Neorealism; Zangezur Corridor; South Caucasus 2026.Abstract
This study analyzes the international and regional dimensions of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region from 2020 to 2026. The research addresses a core problem centered on how the shifting regional and international geopolitical balances contributed to resolving the conflict on the ground in favor of Baku, leading to the dissolution of the region's institutional structures in 2023, and the established political reality up to 2026. The study adopts Neorealism and Systems Analysis frameworks to link local interactions with regional and international environments. The findings reveal that Russia's strategic distraction due to the war in Ukraine, combined with absolute Turkish and Israeli military backing for Azerbaijan, acted as the primary catalyst for shifting the balance of power. Consequently, by 2026, Armenia has executed a clear security shift toward Western powers and India, while Azerbaijan secured full sovereignty, amid ongoing dilemmas regarding vital commercial corridors like the Zangezur corridor.
References
References
1. Books
1. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Trans. Mustafa Mohamed, (Cairo: National Center for Translation, 2012).
2. Thomas de Waal, Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War, Trans. Ahmed Marwan, (Beirut: Dar Al-Madar Al-Islami, 2021).
2. Research & Studies
1. Fayez Sara, 'The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russian Policy in the Caucasus', Arab Affairs Journal, Arab League, No. 174, Summer 2023.
2. Mohamed Abbas Nagi, 'Iranian Anxieties over Geopolitical Transformations in the Caucasus', Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Cairo, 2022.
3. Murat Yesiltas, 'The New Turkish Military Doctrine and its Role in Azerbaijan's Victory', SETA Foundation, Ankara, 2021.
4. Rania Abdel Aziz, 'European Energy Security and Azerbaijan as a Strategic Alternative to Russian Gas', Economic Horizons Journal, Dubai, No. 49, 2023.
5. Sabir Askar, 'Zangezur Corridor: Strategic and Economic Dimensions for Turkey and the Caucasus', Egyptian Institute for Studies, Istanbul, 2022.
6. Waleed Radwan, 'Geopolitics of the Caucasus and the 44-Day War', International Politics Journal, Cairo, No. 223, January 2021.
3. Electronic Websites & International Reports
1. Alexei Malashenko, 'Russia and the South Caucasus: Declining Influence and New Balance of Power', Carnegie Moscow Center, November 2021.
2. Barak Ravid, 'The Secret Alliance: How Israel Monitors Iran from Azerbaijani Territory', Axios Website, March 2023.
3. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 'South Caucasus 2026: Sovereign Corridors and Sovereignty Recognition', Washington D.C., February 2026.
4. European Commission, 'EU-Azerbaijan: New energy partnership to double gas supplies', Press Release, Baku, 18 July 2022.
5. Human Rights Watch, 'The Lachin Corridor Blockade and its Humanitarian Consequences', New York, February 2023.
6. Indian Defence Research Wing (IDRW), 'Indian Arms Sales to Armenia and Reshaping the Strategic Balance in the Caucasus', New Delhi, January 2025.
7. International Crisis Group, 'The Collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh', Briefing No. 95, Tbilisi/Brussels, October 2023.
8. Iranian War Studies Institute, 'Armenian Borders and the Iranian Red Line in the Caucasus Conflict', Tehran, September 2023.
9. Joint Border Delimitation Commission, 'Final Statement of the 8th Round of Border Delimitation between Azerbaijan and Armenia', Baku/Yerevan, May 2024.
10. Ministry of Armed Forces (France), 'Defense Cooperation Agreement between France and Armenia', Paris, October 2023.
11. Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL), 'Armenia officially freezes its membership in the CSTO', Yerevan, March 2024.
12. Reuters Agency, 'Russia begins withdrawing peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh', News Report, April 17, 2024.
13. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 'Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2020', SIPRI Fact Sheet, March 2021.
14. The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), 'Strategic Relations between Israel and Azerbaijan: Oil, Arms, and Iran', Tel Aviv, 2022.
15. UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 'Report on Forced Displacement from Karabakh to Armenia', Geneva, January 2024.
16. US Department of State, 'Blinken Hosts Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministers for Peace Talks', Press Statement, Washington D.C., May 2023.
4. Foreign Sources
1. All primary publications, legislative archives, and institutional think-tank indexes detailed in section 4 represent the fundamental foreign literature structure.
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